Intermediate
Poker Strategy - Brought to you by UltimateBet.com
Godzilla Versus Rodan: Pocket Aces Versus
a Flush Draw
You’re heads up in a no-limit hold’em hand against one opponent. You hold pocket aces and you’re pretty sure he’s on a flush draw. How can you manipulate the situation to maximize your return if he misses, or minimize your loss if he hits?
First, let’s wind the betting back to before the flop, so we know how you got here and how much money’s in the pot. For the sake of conversation, we’ll set the blinds at $2-5, give you two black aces in middle position and have you open an unraised pot for $20 -- not a bad raise with pocket aces, since you want to thin the field, ideally to just one player, and a bet of four times the big blind will drive out most of the shoe clerks.
You get just the one caller, from the cutoff seat, someone you know to be a kosher player -- that is, of average skills and a normal approach to the game. You can count on him to be smart enough to calculate pot odds, but not necessarily disciplined enough to follow through on what the odds dictate.
Now here comes the flop: K-6-2, two-suited in hearts. There’s $47 in the pot (less rake). How much should you bet?
Your preflop raise pretty much dictates that you will bet, as most players follow a RTB -- raise, then bet -- style of play. Nor would you want to give your foe a free card here, unless you're the sort of cowering coward who fears that you'll be called and beaten no matter what, in which case I suggest that no-limit hold'em is not your game; possibly whist.
You likely have the best hand, of course, but this is not merely a case of betting the best hand. What do you want your bet to accomplish? It could do one of three things.
It could win the pot right here.
It could extract extra value.
It could reveal new information.
For the sake of taking a shot at doing all three jobs (the actual outcome being dependant on what my foe actually holds) I generally like a bet about 2/3 the size of the pot here. If my foe missed completely, it’s a big enough bet to drive him off. If he hit some, but not much, of the flop, it’s a small enough bet to keep him in. And if he calls without raising, he reveals something important about his hand.
In the case of the two-suited board, he may be revealing that he's on a flush draw. He probably shouldn't call here -- "draws are death in no-limit" -- but again, this is a foe I can count on to be aware of the right thing to do, but not necessarily to do it. For the sake of the implied odds (the greedy bastard thinks he's going to capture my whole stack) he'll probably take a card off.
Have I given him the right price to do so? Maybe. Let's do the numbers.
If you flop a flush draw, you’re about 2-1 against completing your hand by the river. Should the pot be offering you more than 2-1 return on your investment, you’re correct to call. If the pot’s offering less than 2-1, you should fold. This I’m sure you know, but we’re reviewing for the stoners in the back of the class.
With $47 in the pot, my roughly 2/3 bet of, say $35 will put $82 in the pot. My opponent has to call $35 to win $82. Certainly that’s better than 2-1, but only if he gets to see the river for free. He can’t figure me not to bet again if the turn is a blank (for if I put him on a flush draw, not betting again would be a huge mistake, and I try not to make those). If he’ll fold the turn when he misses, then he really needs about a 4-1 ROI (return on investment) on his flop bet -- which he currently doesn't have -- because he’s about 4-1 against completing his flush on the turn alone.
But many players aren’t that smart. They routinely confuse the overall odds of making a hand with the odds of completing on the next card, and make their calling decisions accordingly. Sometimes you have to spell it out for them: You don’t have odds to call here, shoe clerk! You should fold. The way to do this is to slightly overbet the pot on the flop. Bet more than the size of the pot – about 1/3 more – and you’ll make it abundantly clear that it will cost your foe plenty -- and plenty again on the turn -- to see the river with you this hand.
Is this the most profitable way to play the hand? Not if you can count on your opponent calling again on the turn. Then you should suck him in with a small bet on the flop, and bet again if the turn comes offsuit (which it will most of the time). However, it is a safe way to play the hand, to guarantee that you get at least something from your pocket aces. In games where volatility is an issue, and especially in tournaments where the fall of a third heart could spell disaster for you, I think it’s better to push your opponents off small pots than to let them into big pots -- pots that could very easily not go your way.
One thing you don't want to do is price your opponent into this pot with a hoover bet, a tiny bet designed to suck him in. Suppose instead of betting $35 on the flop, you bet only $10. "He'll have to call that," you chortle. "More money for me." Yes, he'll have to call. You're giving him better than 5-1 return on a 4-1 shot for just the turn card alone. If you give him a cheap look at his flush draw and he gets there, well, you have no one to blame but yourself.
Of course, you could always check the flop, check the turn, check the river and hope your aces hold up, but that's a timid way to play poker, and, again, if that's the way you feel, whist is the game for you, or possibly checkers. "Go big or go home," right? When it comes to betting the flop against a single foe when you think you have the best hand but he has the best draw, go big enough to encourage him to make the right move, by laying down, or a big mistake by calling.
And remember, there are times when you'll play this hand perfectly, your opponent will play it incorrectly, and you'll get unlucky and lose. It happens. It's not a disaster. However, do not for a second hold onto the toxic feeling of entitlement -- I fricking shoulda won! -- that often comes with pocket aces. If you do, you'll play the next hands badly, and true disaster could ensue.
What's the Deelio with Six-Ways?
I don't know about you, but I'm drawn to six-handed hold'em tables like the proverbial moth to the proverbial flame. And not to beat a dead metaphor about it, it's useful to remember what happens to moths drawn to flames. Yep, they get burned. So if you're a six-way junkie like I am, there are a few crucial adjustments you must make to make sure you don't end up like the moth did.
First, let's examine why we like short-handed games so much. Simple: They give us more action and less downtime. If you're in a full ten-handed game and you pick up some gawdawful cheese like Q-3 offsuit, you know you have no choice but to fold. (At least I hope you know.) So then you have to wait, wait, wait while the hand plays out, and even at internet speeds that seems like an awful lot of waiting till you get to look at your next hand.
Further to that, in a ten-handed game it's correct to fold marginal hands like K-8 suited because the great number of foes makes it a virtual lock that there's a better hand out there against you. How virtual a lock? The odds are 4-1 against starting with a hand containing an ace or a pair, which means that in a full ring game an average of two players out of ten will hold one of these hands. Your K-8 is beaten in two places from jump street. No wonder you have to fold.
But you don't want to fold, right? You want to get in there and mix it up. Play some hands. Win some pots. That's why you logged on in the first place. And that's why you play six-way.
Where it's more correct to play marginal hands.
And not just play them, but play them aggressively.
Where even if you do have to fold, with so few players involved, the hand will be over that much more quickly and you'll be back in action that much sooner.
Okay, at least you know why you're here. At least you have your head on straight. Now here are some things to think about.
- Attack the blinds. Blinds come around so fast in a six-way game that you need to win your share of fold-outs. Remember that you're up against random hands. They're unlikely to have quality cards, so they'll often have to fold even if they know you're a lying sack of cheese.
- Don't over-defend your small blind, especially if the small blind is less than half the size of the big blind. You're paying too much to play mediocre hands in the worst possible position. Let it go, even if you know your foe is a lying sack of cheese.
- Disguise your strength in the big blind. If they raise into you and you hold A-K or J-J, there's a real temptation to raise them back and punish them for their impudence. Resist that urge. If the flop comes favorable to your hand you can trap, and if it doesn't, you can get away.
- Further to that, be more likely to trap than to bluff. In six-handed (or less) action, you don't have to have much of the flop to be ahead, and if you think you're ahead let the other guy do your betting for you.
- Recognize that your foes are more likely to trap than to bluff. Be prepared to break off your attacks on the pot if it doesn't look like they're planning to surrender. Likewise, respect reraises, especially on the turn. This is much more likely to be the second half of a one-two trap play than the much trickier and less prevalent check-raise bluff or reraise bluff.
- Don't get involved in raising wars unless you have the nuts! This is crucial. Players don't reraise twice on a bluff. They just don't. If you find yourself going head to head with someone who's capping the betting, you have to put him on a hand. Slow down! Don't get involved in a pissing contest (which is what a raising war is). If you lose, you'll have dug yourself a hole it's hard to climb out of.
- Further to that, recognize that profit comes slowly in a short-handed game. Most pots are small, so it's vital - vital - that you don't give more action than you get. Otherwise you'll get stuck in that aforementioned hole, and have to dig out a bet or two at a time.
- Don't get stuck on a draw. Your flush draws, open-ended straight draws and overcard draws go way down in value in a short-handed game because you never have enough action to give you positive pot odds.
- Conversely, play big cards, bad aces and all pairs more aggressively. You're looking for hands that can improve with little or no help from the flop. In the smallish field of a short-handed game, little or no improvement is often enough.
- Don't go crazy. Short-handed play rewards aggressiveness, but don't go to war with nothing. A junk hand is a junk hand no matter how many people are involved.
- If you raise pre-flop, you'll be expected to lead the betting on the flop. Fail to do so and you're asking to be bet off the pot, but if you continue to bet with junk, you're just begging to be trapped. So make sure you have a little something-something when you raise pre-flop.
- Know your foes. They're few in number, so their strengths and weaknesses are magnified. Some will be better than you and some will be worse. Attack the weakies and avoid the trickies. If the game's too tough, get out! There's bound to be a softer one out there somewhere.
There's much more we could discuss (and no doubt much more we will discuss) on the subject of six-ways and short-handed play, but for now if you want to avoid being the moth burned in the flame, here are the key things to remember:
- Play aggressively or don't play at all.
- Don't give more action than you get.
- If you're out-matched, flee!
Movin' on up
One of the most important skills in becoming a great professional poker player is money management. In fact, money management is, in some ways, much more important than talent. I have seen many good poker players go broke because of poor money management skills: playing too high for their bankroll, playing in the pit, or jumping into games that are too high for the game they regularly play.
It is obvious why the first two are examples of poor money management skills. If you only have a bankroll of $1000 then playing $20/$40 is a terrible idea as you can go broke in one play. Taking your poker bankroll and playing pit games such as craps where skill does not count is obviously poor money management. But what do I mean by the last example. Shouldn't you sometimes jump into a game that is higher than you generally play if the game is great? No!
Let's say you generally play between $10/$20 and $15/$30 hold'em. You walk into the poker room one day, or log onto the computer, and you see a fantastic $30/$60 game with a big $15/$30 sucker in it. What is going to happen to your bankroll if you play in this game? Let's consider the downside.
If you play in this game, it is twice as big as the highest game you generally play in. This means you'll make twice as much, right? Wrong. The pros playing in the game are going to be much better than you; after all they consistently beat a game twice as big as you play in. Consider how bad the suckers have to be in order to outweigh the fact that you are playing with pros who frankly play on a different level than you do. What often happens is that even though you can pound on the suckers in the game, you become merely a holding station for the suckers' money on its way to the better pros in the game. So if you want to take a shot at a big game you had better consider how much more skilled than you the pros sitting at the table are.
It all comes down to simple risk versus reward. If you are a great $15/$30 player maybe you are beating the game for a full big bet an hour, $30. If you jump up to take a shot at what looks like juicy a $30/$60 game what happens to your earn vs. variance? With the significantly better pros in the game, combined with the fact that you may be playing out of your comfort level, you may now only be taking ½ a big bet an hour out of the game, or $30. That's the same $30/hour you were taking out of the $15/$30 game with twice the risk! You are earning the same amount per hour but having to fade the variance of a $30/$60 game rather than a $15/$30. In fact the risk is probably more than double as a juicy game is generally wilder; and the wilder the game, the higher the variance. If you are only moving up when the game is really juicy then you are specifically choosing to jump up in high variance situations. So even if you did increase your earn to say ¾ of a big bet per hour, or $45, you are still having to endure significantly larger fluctuations in your bankroll, fluctuations your $15/$30 bankroll may not be able to endure.
I know you are thinking that if the game is good enough maybe you could take out a full big bet an hour and double your earnings. Then you should certainly jump up, right? I still say no. For there is still the simple fact that, in the short term, luck is very powerful in poker and on any given day the best player in the game might be the biggest loser of the day if luck isn't with him. If you want to take a shot at a game you had better make sure that game goes more than every once in a while. Otherwise, a bad day in the game, no matter how good the game, could ruin your whole month. If you jump into a big game and have bad luck it could wipe out all the hard work you have done in the smaller game in one fell swoop. That's right, poof! Your profits for a month of hard work are gone because you jumped into a wild, albeit great, game double the size of the game you generally play.
So consider the risk when you see that juicy game. It might not be as juicy for your bankroll as it looks!